Talk to Hal.

Members present: Brian, Bickford, Danak

SPY is currently doing pretty well, and we were wondering if we wanted to see if it is going to go higher or do we want to lock in our profits. If there is some downturn on the horizon, when do we want to get out? Granted, SPY is an index of the S&P 500, which means that as long as the parts of the fund are doing well as a whole, we are good.

SPY is hovering at $151, and historically it hasn't gone much past $160. We purchased it at $119, so it has been mildly profitable. It might be a good idea to set an automatic sell, say at $140, just to limit the amount that we can lose in the case of a crash. Using automatic orders is good for a small, informal group such as ours. We meet once a week, and none of us is at the computer all day looking at the numbers. Using these tools allow us to keep a watchful, robotic eye on our money.

EWZ is steady.
ENZL is humming along, as is ATT.

Now, on to the problem of figuring out where to put our money.

We took a look at a few different funds, and did some reading. A while back, we were thinking about investing in HILO, an emerging markets ETF. It is billed as a low-volatility, emerging market, dividend ETF. Also, we looked at EELV and EEMV. HILO is unfortunately a little more "expensive," because it has a high expense ratio. The fund is performing well, but it drags a little because it has to work that much harder to make up for the higher expense ratio.

Next week we should delve further into these funds, and maybe even make a decision on a buy.

Profit!

Insert a joke about cramming money in a bunny.

Members present: Brian, Bickford, Danak (see also, natural peanut butter)

We continue our stock valuation exercise. Up today:

Proctor & Gamble

A gander at http://www.freestockvalueranker.com/ calculated PG as overvalued, so we took a look at some of the other "personal products" stocks and came upon Energizer Holdings Inc. (ENR), which sells batteries, razors, etc. Brian found an article about institutional investors selling consumer goods stocks that are near their fifty-two week high. The article mentions how some hedge funds sold off 30 million shares of ENR back in September, where the price was $81, and it has gone up to $90 or since then--so it is always a gamble, right? However, the real question is how this applies to a small investment group like ours.

If we go with the valuation from freestockvalueranker, and we see around 9% growth, this could mean ENR is a good investment, even if we only have six or so shares. Then we took a slightly deeper look at some of the recent news articles for Energizer, and things look okay. Bickford mentioned that the dividend for ENR is a new development. This might mean that they are trying to get more investment, which might be a sign of worry. The conclusion for now is that ENR might be something to keep an eye on.

Next week we should check up on the two food companies we mentioned a few weeks ago.

There's also still:

• Cvs/Walgreens
• Boston Beer Company 
• Craft Brewers Alliance

Profit!

I would gladly pay you tuesday for a burrito today.

Members present: Brian, Bickford, Danak...Darkness shrouds them as they approach a new buy. 

Today we are going to look at another company and analyze some companies that sell the same sort of service or good, in order to determine if that stock is under or over valued. Specifically, we are going to take a look at Chipotle Mexican Restaurant. This means that we are going to compare it to other restaurants that are at a similar level, i.e. not schmancy.

Below is a handy infographic from http://www.freestockvalueranker.com/, which despite it's sketchy name, is a handy tool.

From what we see CCSC (Country Style Cooking Restaurant Chain Co., Ltd.) is undervalued, however if you take a look at the 200 DMA, it looks a bit scary: 

In this case, this doesn't seem like a good investment just yet. However, it might be worth keeping an eye on for some growth. Right now it is a bit risky, especially since it is a market we don't know about---namely Chinese fast food, in China.

Then there's something like Cracker Barrel (CBRL), which we understand and see as having a responsible and clear growth model--always along major highways, always filled with tons of people looking for their eggs in a basket and crap on the walls. A look at the 200DMA over five years says that we missed the boat, though:

As you can see, it doesn't look like their is a lot of unforeseen growth potential.

We took a look at Kraft, but it's only been around six months as KRFT. Wawa is privately traded, so no good for us. Then there's Hormel (HRL), which is undervalued

The search continues. However, it must be noted that we are starting to get comfortable with the process of picking stocks and analyzing them for their potential investment value. It should also be noted that we haven't actually purchased one of these yet.


Profit!

Workin' from the bottom up.

Unilever - Dove, Axe, and Ben and Jerry's?!

Unilever falls under a number of different names with different stocks that go under the working name, "Unilever Group"  We'll look at the PLC, since it is the most affordable.

Rank	Ticker1	Company Name	IndustrySector	Current Stock Price1	Projected Stock Price2based on Projected P/E	Projected Stock Price2based on PEG	Projected EPS3	Projected Company PEG3	Projected Industry PEG3	Projected Growth Rate4	Relative PEG Value5	% Under/Overvalued PEG5
1.	STKL	SunOpta, Inc.	Food - Major Diversified	$6.32	$6.44	$27.77	$0.48	0.38	1.67	34.65%	Undervalued	338.60%
2.	HOGS	Zhongpin Inc.	Food - Major Diversified	$12.85	$19.71	$44.71	$1.47	0.48	1.67	18.21%	Undervalued	247.22%
3.	DOLE	Dole Food Company	Food - Major Diversified	$10.18	$13.28	$12.69	$0.99	1.34	1.67	7.67%	Undervalued	24.38%
4.	LANC	Lancaster Colony	Food - Major Diversified	$71.14	$58.33	$67.50	$4.35	1.76	1.67	9.29%	Overvalued	5.60%
5.	HNZ	H.J. Heinz Compan	Food - Major Diversified	$58.46	$50.82	$41.02	$3.79	2.38	1.67	6.48%	Overvalued	42.80%
6.	UL	Unilever PLC Comm	Food - Major Diversified	$38.61	$31.38	$17.62	$2.34	3.66	1.67	4.51%	Overvalued	119.60%

Unilever is very overvalued according to the PEG calculations which is what we learned that we should use for established companies.  Unilever has over-recovered.  Skip it.

SunOpta is a organic food company.  They do generic foods and seem to run the whole process by themselves.  They sell to both manufacturers and restaurants.  Very broad based company.  This might be where your Publix Greenwise comes from.  In a growing economy, we're guessing that this company could do very well, but we're not so sure about a shrinking one.



Here is a quick comparison to SPY.  We've got some more volatility there.  That stock value may have something to do with it.  This got us to a quick macro discussion about organic food in general and maybe we should look for a fund so that we wouldn't be trying to pick a winner.

We started looking for organic food ETFs and found the following:
http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/06/19/huntingtons-ecological-strategy-active-etf-first-o/

This rather new ETF contains a group of established companies in what we consider an odd mix.

Another interesting article we ran into had the following quote (http://www.topstockanalysts.com/index.php/2012/03/08/5-misunderstood-etfs-explained/):

"Though some investors no doubt buy these funds because of the utility derived from avoiding “bad” companies, there is a case to be made for these methodologies producing above-average returns over the long run. Companies that stay on the right side of the law and act as responsible corporate citizens are more likely to avoid costly lawsuits and build loyal customer bases–two factors that can boost profitability over the long run."

This is a nice thought.  I'm not sure if it will pan out, but it'd be nice.  Another article on the same topic:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/723161-huntington-s-top-stocks-here-s-why-eco-investments-are-smart-investments

With that, we have covered none of the stocks that we said that we would last meeting.

Profit!

Debbie Downer Economy

We were taking a look at our portfolio, and currently everything but our blasted Brazil fund is up, so much so that we are at a total profit of about 6% despite EWZ's poor performance. We are looking at a year of slow growth and a generally down economy, so the challenge becomes what do we do. We were wondering what could go up in a down world.

A while back we were talking through some stock valuation strategies, and it sounds like we need to do that for serious now.

So here's the strategy:

Find a brand that we all recognize  and has been around for a long time, that we expect to be around for a long time, but also hasn't quite recovered yet.

Here's our list:

Kraft
Chipotle
Proctor & Gabmble
CVS/Walgreens
Wawa
Hormel
Boston Beer Company
Craft Brewers Allaince

Some of these are less established than others, but we are going to take a look and see if anything indicates that it might be undervalued. The bottom line is that we really need to just get in there and invest something, because holding cash doesn't make a lot of sense--unless things are going to be really, really bad.


Profit.

Euro Momma Jokes

Members present: Brian, Bickford, Danak

So Europe is going to have a banking, and the market approves. Even our crummy Brazil ETF (EWZ) was up a little. A banking union for the Eurozone means that there is some more guaranteed stability.

Here's a the Planet Money article that gives some more deets.

Even EWZ is up a little, about 2.5%

SPY: The market is liking this banking union thing.

Telecommited to profit!

Of course it is still time for us to make a stock purchase. There are currently three contenders: NORW, ENZL, and HILO. 

Here's the sector breakdown for each (remember, we have a small portfolio, and we are trying to diversify):

As you can see NORW is the most energy-heavy of the lot, but that might not be a problem because Norway seems to have a good reputation for keeping things sane. If anyone can handle a giant national endowment of Texas Tea, is the Vikings. Plus, remember the movie at the Norway kiosk at EPCOT? If  you can sit through that snoozer, you know they have no taste or irrational exuberance.

And here's a breakdown of the sectors and what each would do to our total portfolio:



With each of these, we would stay pretty well-diversified. However, if we do go with NORW it might be good to avoid energy in the future. Really though, it is probably necessary to sit on this and take a look at this chart in more depth next week.

We could also look at these as our next three buys, and just choose which makes sense next. This would give us a short list of investments, which will always be ready for the next buy. We tend to work in cycles of about six months, but we don't buy as often because it is always so hard to commit to something specific. The idea is that we will add to the list and be prepared for upcoming buys waiting only on the funds to roll in. 

Oh the things you can do with screen capture.

Profit!

Buy low, sell high...Buy HILO?

Members present: Brian, Bickford, Danak

Overall we are down 1.7% in our admittedly meager portfolio. This is despite EWZ, our Brazil fund, being 32% below our purchase price. This is truly where diversity is paying off.

Speaking of diversity, it is buy time again, and we're still having trouble finding something that works. Brian was thinking about HILO, a low volatility fund centering around emerging markets.

Looking at the chart, things don't appear good. This seems to have all the not volatility of a wooden roller-coaster, but if you look at the scale, you'll notice that things are swinging between a low of about $16.50 and a high of about $21.



Here's HILO's holdings by sector:

The subject of dividends came up again, and we were trying to understand the implications when a company offers dividends. You take a company like AT&T, that has been around forever (in some form or another). They are probably not going to display gangbusters growth, so dividends can be looked at as a way of enticing investors, thus gaining capital for the company.

*There's a nice discussion, here.


And then there's Norway:

It is still trending down, but has it hit bottom? If we can catch it at the right time, it might be our next buy. 

Here's their holdings, by sector again:



New Zealand is also a prospect:

ENZL, the Kiwi fund.

Here's their holdings by sector:

Random charts:

Brazil...ugh.

SPY: Humming along.

AT&T: Have you called your mother recently? Judging by the share price, you have. Thanks.

For next week:

We really need to figure out the next buy.

Profit!

Heeeeeey, it's a party with the DMA!

We're dancing around the 200 DMA.  Should we do something?

We're sucking... we're sucking.  The 50 crossed below the 200.  It's just getting worse.

AT&T may be a defensive move for other market players.  If that is the case, it'll act as a hedge against a dropping SPY.  Let's just ignore what is happening with Brazil.

Norway is fairly stable when you look at the dollar range that we're moving between. 

New Zealand seems to be a pretty steady hold as well. 

No real meeting today due to technical issues and video games.  We'll try for more next week.

Old Folks at Home

Members present: Brian, Bickford, Danak

A lackluster jobs report combined with the market being down for the year as of this month--ick.


We are the .01% of the 99%?

While hearing a group conversation about the 99% vs. the 1%, one of us wondered what these folks who are presumably locked into being part of the 99% were so vitriolic toward any sort of protest movement. They will never be billionaires, so it would be instructive to understand the psychology behind their resent. Perhaps it is the idea that they could become fabulously-well-to-do is the driving force, and perhaps it is the picture of patchouli-stinking, hippie campers, who contributer nothing nothing but jam band music and olfactory terrorism to the public discourse. Is it dreamy avarice or steamy resent?

Old Folks at Home

The market is currently flooded with investors that are going to retire at some point in the near future. They will need social security, but they will be leaving jobs. Perhaps this is going to be a good thing for the market, since all the jobs they left will need new people to gripe about them (whilst doing them), which might solve the social security problem, perhaps. This assumes that as people retire, they will be replaced by new people and not just phased out. Anecdotally, we all have heard about jobs being eliminated and increasing the burden of productivity on the remaining workforce. The next person who tells me to work smarter, not harder is getting a wet willie.

Additionally, there are a lot of people who have 401Ks as opposed to pensions. This means that the amount of retirement someone will receive depends on the whims of the market. Currently, with a Sherman's march to the sea-like decline in the markets, it is not a great time to retire if your revenue for the rest of your life is predicated on what kind of music they play during the market wrap up.

On the plus side for the markets, there will be people leaving the market as they cash in their retirements. This might decrease the volatility, since there will be less people with their fingers on the panic button.

Charts

EWZ: Check please?

When SPY was sucking, we held with it, and then it came back. It might be a good thing to hold on to EWZ while we're down--we missed our chance to sell, and the best thing is to wait and see. If we sold it, we could either hold cash and wait for it to drop more, or we could sell out of it and buy something else, but then what? Also, we should consider that EWZ is a country fund for Brazil, so it makes sense that it will come back. 

SPY

AT&T: Looking good. 

Norway

Fascinating reading here (Wikipedia), but here's the skinny: they are not part of the EU, they spend their oil profits with an eye toward the future, and did I mention that they are not part of the EU?--or OPEC, for that matter.

Here's a chart of their exports from Wikipedia:

Here's another take on Norway, but things still look pretty rosy. 

We will have to continue to look at it.

Next week, no Bickford, so Brian and Danak will take a look at Norway NORW.


Profit!