Saturday, June 17, 2017

Wait? Follow me? Wait!

Finance, much like Resident Evil 4 is a game of Wait! Follow me!


We have some shares of Infosys, a giant Indian IT company, and we're doing a check-in:

  • weakening demand of its traditional business (clients prefer that robots perform their IT, because it's way cheaper)
  • concern about the US travel visa restrictions (Infosys is largest employer of H-1B visa professionals in the United States).
  • Craziness in the boardroom (People are arguing in the big office)
Further reading here

So where does this leave us? We set a floor and ceiling, so if the stock dips below $13.23 we sell or above $16.17 we sell. Since buying it in February, it hasn't crossed either threshold. We bought it because it probably going to be volatile, since there's all sort of craziness going with the company, and we were hoping that would end up good for us.  Is our tolerance set too wide? Do we adjust that? Sell? Hold on?

Here's the candlestick chart for Infosys that we found on Finviz. 



You have a channel (the second purple and blue line) and a wedge (the first purple line and the blue line). We talked about the different patterns last time, but you can find them here (and more here). The wedge indicates volatility is shrinking and the price is converging on something. The channel shows that the volatility is generally moving up. So what does one do with this? You might be tempted to stare at the candles, flicking uncertainly as if in a darkened room, looking for the answer. But it's been pointed out to us that you should probably also consider the real-world things that are going on with the company (see above). All this seems to point to us that we should hold on to INFY for a while longer. 

Wait.


In other news, we need to be moving toward a new buy. 

Profit.

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