Showing posts with label Consumer Discretionary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Consumer Discretionary. Show all posts

Saturday, April 5, 2014

It is better to regret something you have done, than to regret something you haven't done.

Non, Je ne Regrette Rien

At this point ENZL has balanced out our losses with EWZ. I guess this proves the value of diversification.

Today we're looking at Home Depot, CVS, Proctor & Gamble.

Both Home Depot and CVS have been outperforming respective their sectors (consumer discretionary and staples). They also have higher dividends than their funds (VCR & VDC, respectively).



We can do two buys, and we'd like to do one consumer discretionary and one staples. For consumer discretionary we liked Amazon, but it was too expensive, and we hated Comcast on principle, because that's only a rung above investing in privatized prisons.

On a side note, what sector would even fall under?

This means that for consumer discretionary Home Depot looks good.

We talked to someone we knew who was a sales rep who worked quite a bit with Home Depot, and he had a lot of good things to say anecdotally about how they do business. While this isn't really data-driven, it does seem to bolster our case.

Anyhow, let's narrow our decision on staples. We had been considering CVS and Proctor & Gamble. P & G was 12% of VDC and CVS is 5%. Basically, these are companies we are looking at making a substantial investment in anyway if we were to go with the ETFs. However, we are hoping to pick the winners, at it were, from those funds. Another reason for going with a single stock is investing solely in the companies we like, either economically or with respect to values (Philip Morris, Comcast, Wal-Mart), but that's getting off track again.




Even though P&G has been underperforming relative to its index, it still has a better dividend than CVS, making it more appealing to us, given our strategy. In theory, it is a (relatively) more guaranteed return.


P&G has a low beta and  a reasonable dividend. Those aspects fit very nicely with our generally risk-averse strategy and mindset. We like something safe that will give us a steady, even if small return. The purpose of the consumer staples sector is to have a stable investment. Our thought is to pick a representative component of a stable consumer staples fund. Additionally, we are due for two purchases, which means making a simple decision may be best for moving forward. Or as the great poet laureate Gibby Haynes once said, "It is better to regret something you have done, than to regret something you haven't done."

It looks like we are going to buy PG, so next week we will look at Home Depot vs. its fund and whether or not we want to purchase it.

Profit!

Saturday, March 15, 2014

Can we just pick one stock? Part one will attempt to answer this and will ultimately fail.


From the ever depressing world of EWZ comes this quote:

"Looking at units outstanding versus one week prior within the universe of ETFs covered at ETF Channel, the biggest outflow was seen in the iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ), where 7,150,000 units were destroyed, or a 7.2% decrease week over week." - Forbes

Attempting to simplify, let's narrow a search down to one stock.  We can take a peak at the ETFs that we've been overviewing and just select one company.  First, we'll check out the main components of the Asian ETFs.

Chart forTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM)

First, here is TSM, which is Taiwan Semiconductor and is the main component (20%) of EWT.  Unfortunately, there is no real way to get to Samsung, the major component of EWY, through the US market.  You can pick some up as over-the-counter (OTC) or through Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated (MLPF&S - a BofA subsidiary), but that's not the way we want to go.  If we want to grab some of that juicy Samsung growth, then we'll have to stick with the ETF. 

How about the consumer discretionary or consumer staples which were VCR and VDC, respectively?  VCR has the holdings in the chart below.  The spread is nice, and if you remember from a few weeks ago this ETF was solidly outperforming SPY.  We can take a look at the top few, but they aren't necessarily a strong force pushing the value of this fund around.  Maybe, we just start with the ones that we know.  Amazon and Comcast come to mind, even though we don't necessarily want to support Comcast.

Top 10 Holdings (32.95% of Total Assets) 
CompanySymbol% Assets
Amazon.com, Inc.AMZN5.08
Walt Disney Company (The) CommoDIS4.78
Comcast CorporationCMCSA4.42
Home Depot, Inc. (The) Common SHD4.27
McDonald's Corporation Common SMCD3.65
priceline.com IncorporatedPCLN2.29
Time Warner Inc. New Common StoTWX2.24
Ford Motor Company Common StockF2.13
Starbucks CorporationSBUX2.07
Twenty-First Century Fox, Inc.FOXA2.02

VDC has the holdings shown in the chart below.  As you can see, the fund isn't quite as diverse.  Choosing one stock from this bunch is a little easier.  The fund has been tracking SPY very closely.  

Top 10 Holdings (60.71% of Total Assets) 
CompanySymbol% Assets
Procter & Gamble Company (The)PG12.11
Coca-Cola Company (The) CommonKO8.55
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. Common StWMT7.37
Philip Morris International IncPM7.25
Pepsico, Inc. Common StockPEP6.93
CVS Caremark Corporation CommonCVS4.89
Altria Group, Inc.MO4.06
Colgate-Palmolive Company CommoCL3.47
Mondelez International, Inc.MDLZ3.10
Walgreen Co. Common StockWAG2.98
 
For next week, Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, and Amazon.

Profit!