Thursday, March 15, 2012

Eu nao fala Portuguese. Maybe I would be able to do better research.

One of our holdings, EWZ took a big drop the other week. We purchased it for 70ish and then it immediately dropped. It had worked its way up from around a low of $51 to $70 and now it has dropped again to the mid $60s. I wanted to do a little research as to why this might have happened. http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2012-03/tax-dispute-keeps-vale-and-all-of-brazil-too-hot-to-handle.aspx?storyid=126635 According to this article, both Vale and Petrobras are having issues. Vale is having tax disputes that potentially leave it liable for a size able portion of their market cap. Petrobras is having profit issues that I'm too lazy to research. Now, these two companies are the largest holdings in EWZ to the tune of 30%. This is a lesson in knowing what is under the hood when you buy something in the ETF envelope. We've stressed the idea that diversification is important because an unexpected turn of events could do some damage. We'll talk about this at the meeting. It is always said that a big drop is much less likely after another big drop. Who know if these risks have been totally priced in. The results of the tax issues with Vale are likely to have a large impact on this portion of our portfolio. http://www.forbes.com/sites/etfchannel/2012/03/08/ewz-large-outflows-detected-at-etf-3/ This article points out the incredibly large outflow of money from EWZ. Looking today at week-over-week shares outstanding changes among the universe of ETFs covered at ETF Channel, one standout is the iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund (AMEX: EWZ) where we have detected an approximate $67.2 million dollar outflow — that’s a 0.7% decrease week over week (from 152,950,000 to 151,950,000). That seems like a pretty quick move. It still appears that we're above the 200 DMA, if that is of any consequence. That's all for now. Profit!

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